Soccer consultants offer you betting ideas, the media publishes the newest information concerning the opponent groups and their key gamers, bookmakers assist a whole bunch of betting strategies. Nonetheless, once you lastly place your big wager on a positive favourite, that is the time to start out praying. Sadly, the world of soccer betting is kind of unpredictable. There are millions of components enjoying in opposition to us. How can we lower our betting losses? The one approach to do it’s by utilizing cash administration methods. This text summarizes the strategies and techniques of betting cash administration and supplies a statistical comparability of their efficiency primarily based on betting odds and match outcomes of high European leagues.
The most typical betting cash administration methods in our days are: Martingale, Row of numbers and Kelly criterion. Whereas the primary two don’t require any prior data, Kelly criterion requires the punter to know the chance of a win.
Definitions
Earlier than presenting the efficiency evaluation, a quick description of the above-mentioned methods is important:
— Martingale technique means doubling the stack after a loss and returning again to the beginning stack after a win. This technique is the preferred at the moment and guarantees optimistic income, however requires intensive cash investments.
— Row of numbers means planning a collection of fixed income. Given betting odds, the punter calculates every stake in a approach that may permit him to make the deliberate revenue. In case he loses, he ought to improve the following stack in such a approach the revenue will return each the cash already misplaced and the deliberate income for the misplaced video games. This technique is much less aggressive than Martingale however nonetheless harmful.
— Kelly criterion: mathematically confirmed to be one of the best technique in the long term. Nonetheless, it requires understanding the chance of a win. The stacks are calculated in proportion of the scale of your funds and based on the relation between the chance of a win and the betting odds. When chance and odds are excessive, a excessive stack might be positioned and vice versa.
Information and Strategies
In an effort to consider the efficiency of every technique, we analyzed the betting odds set by bookmakers for the highest European leagues. Think about that bookmakers are punters who place a stake on a favourite with minimal betting odds. One can simply estimate the chance of a win by dividing the common variety of house/draw/away outcomes by the whole variety of video games in a season.
The betting odds and outcomes are taken from the 4 European high leagues enjoying within the 2008/2009 season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1 and Spanish Primera Division.
Abstract
— The outcomes present that Kelly criterion is one of the best cash administration technique of the three with a median revenue of +5% in comparison with +1% (Row) and +1.2% (Martingale).
— Essentially the most worthwhile was the French Ligue 1 with a betting revenue of +22% (Kelly), +9% (Row) and +10% (Martingale).
— The least worthwhile was the English Premier League with a betting loses of -10% (Kelly) ), -9% (Row) and -8% (Martingale).
