The Narrative Vortex – The Irrelevant Investor

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The investor narrative has modified during the last couple of weeks. It went from everybody pondering a recession was a fait accompli to maaaaybe we will really escape its grip.

Inflation is coming down. Wage progress is decelerating. Exercise is returning to the housing market. And the labor market continues to be extremely sturdy. Put all these collectively and it seems like the chances of a comfortable touchdown are growing. Each James Bullard and Larry Summers got here out this week saying as a lot.

However then we bought sooner or later of softening information, and the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, its worst day in over a month. And so the narrative modified once more. Neglect concerning the comfortable touchdown. Dangerous information is unhealthy information once more.

Nicely, right here we’re two days faraway from the narrative shift, and shares had a heck of a day. The S&P 500 gained 1.9%, and the Nasdaq-100 gained 2.7%. Google introduced huge layoffs, and so the inventory had its greatest day since November, naturally. So, is unhealthy information excellent news once more?  What to consider?

I chase narratives like everyone else, however you wouldn’t comprehend it primarily based on my portfolio. And that’s the best way it ought to be, for probably the most half. So put together your self as a result of there will probably be loads of forwards and backwards this 12 months as new info involves gentle. At all times however particularly now, the important thing to investing is to not chop your self up because the market struggles to decide on a path. Don’t get caught within the narrative vortex.

Have a very good weekend.

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